South Brunswick, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

789
FXUS61 KPHI 111345
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
945 AM EDT Sun May 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure returns for our Sunday and Monday before moving
out Monday night. An area of low pressure enters the region for
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM update...
Only change of substance was to increase cloud cover across
southern areas given intrusion of high clouds, making it more of
a partly sunny day.

Previous discussion...
Early this morning, conditions remain tranquil across the area. High
cirrus clouds associated with a weak frontal boundary have
retreated southward with the front pushing through the region. However,
with little moisture, no precipitation is occuring with the
frontal passage. Temperature wise, areas that have seen more
persistent cloud coverage are starting out this morning in the
low to mid 50s with areas further north in the mid to upper
40s.

Heading into the daytime hours today, high pressure builds back in
from the northwest. The high will transit from northwest to
southeast, just to the north of the region, keeping continued dry
conditions across the area through the remainder of the near term
forecast. Some cirrus clouds will begin to build back in though
with an upper-level low stalled to our southwest. Highs this
afternoon will be mainly in the mid-upper 70s with low 80s
possible across southeastern New Jersey and Delmarva. RHs will
once again fall into the upper 20s to low 30s with drying
conditions aloft behind the front and diurnal mixing. However,
winds will be much lighter today (generally around 10 mph) with
the center of the high closer and weaker winds at the top of the
boundary layer. This will limit any fire spread concerns.

The low temperature forecast for tonight is very similar to this
morning, with cirrus clouds continuing across the southern
portion with the continued presence of the upper-level low.
Lows in the mid-upper 50s for areas where cloud coverage limits
radiational cooling, mid-upper 40s everywhere else.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will be centered some 300 to 400 miles east of
the New Jersey Shore on Monday with mid-level ridging along the
coast. Meanwhile, low pressure organizes and develops over the Gulf
Coast states. A warm front extending out from that low will lift
north through the Mid-Atlantic region and will approach Delmarva
Monday afternoon. High pressure slowly shifts east Monday night, and
then lifts north Tuesday through Tuesday night. The warm front lifts
north through the region Monday night, and then low pressure slowly
moves into the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday through Tuesday night.

Scattered showers may develop over Delmarva late Monday afternoon,
but the bulk of the showers will hold off until Monday night.
Showers will then affect the area from southwest to northeast
through at least Tuesday night. Rain may be heavy from time to time,
especially south and west of the I-95 corridor. From Monday night
through Tuesday night, rainfall will average around an inch or so
with 1/2 inch to 1 inch over the southern Poconos and northern New
Jersey and 1 to 1.5 inches over Delmarva. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible over Delmarva as well Tuesday night.

Warm and mild on Monday with highs in the mid and upper 70s across
most of the region, with highs around 80 along the I-95 corridor,
and highs in the low 70s in the higher elevations of the southern
Poconos and in the upper 60s along the coasts. Clouds and rain will
keep the area cooler on Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to low
70s. Lows at night will be muggy and in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The approaching closed low gradually opens back up into a shortwave
trough Wednesday as it continues moving towards us, then finally
passing overhead on Thursday. As the system approaches, shower
coverage should remain fairly widespread on Wednesday into Wednesday
night with some isolated embedded thunderstorms possible. Highs on
Wednesday are generally in the mid 60s to mid 70s. By Wednesday
night, our temperatures fall into the mid 50s to low 60s.

The shower coverage may be a bit more isolated Thursday morning
before becoming a bit more scattered again for the afternoon. For
Thursday, highs reach into the 70s for most. Temperatures do not
fall too much overnight Thursday as lows are mainly in the low to
mid 60s.

There is a brief lull in the unsettled weather Thursday night into
Friday morning, as an upper-level ridge builds in with a weak
surface high pressure system. This will allow drier conditions but
does not do much in the way of cloud cover. The high pressure system
does not last long as more unsettled weather arrives the second half
of Friday. A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will lead to
unsettled weather into Saturday. Both days temperatures look to
climb into the 80s for highs. There is also a signal there for
a weak cold front to move through later in the day Friday which
could lead to more of a focal point for the showers and any
thunderstorm potential. Another cold front arrives later
Saturday, which could have a similar scenario as Friday by
leading to a more focused area of showers and thunderstorms.
This timeframe is a ways away with uncertainty but does look
active.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR. Northwest wind 5-10 kt. A few gusts may
approach 20 kts toward miday especially KABE. A sea breeze may
develop and push through KACY and KMIV by late afternoon. High
confidence on VFR conditions and prevailing winds.

Tonight...VFR. Winds around 5 kt or less, generally out of the
east/northeast. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Monday night through Tuesday night...Sub-VFR in SHRA and BR.
Isolated TSRA possible, mainly at KILG, KMIV, KACY Tuesday
night.

Wednesday through Thursday...Sub-VFR with SHRA, BR, and isolated
TSRA possible.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected through tonight. Westerly wind around
10 kt through this morning, before taking on a more east/southeast
direction in the afternoon and continuing through tonight. Seas
2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Monday through Monday night...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Seas may build to 5 ft on DE ocean
waters Tuesday afternoon. SCA conditions expected Tuesday night for
most waters for 25 kt wind gusts and seas building to 5 to 7 ft.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...SCA conditions with wind
gusts around 20-25 kts and seas 5-6 feet.

Thursday...No marine headlines expected, though showers remain
possible.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guzzo
NEAR TERM...AKL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...Guzzo
AVIATION...AKL/Guzzo/MPS/RCM
MARINE...AKL/Guzzo/MPS